[Prediction] Initial Price of Toshiba's SCiB 24V 4.2Ah pack for E-Bike

greentechZONE Products for the week of November 24, 2008

Schwinn Bicycles Says…Tailwind Electric Bicycle Helps Launch Toshiba’s Most Advanced, Longest-Lived High-Performance BatteriesTailwind eBike from Schwinn uses Toshiba Super Charge ion Battery (SCiB) technology to deliver an industry-leading 30-minute recharge time (through a standard residential electrical outlet), one-eighth (1/8th) the time of competing electric bikes (or less), setting a new standard for the electric bike industrySchwinn Bicycles has unveiled the Tailwind electric bike to bicycle dealers. “The Tailwind sets a new standard of excellence in the eBike industry,” said Bruno Maier, Executive Vice President and General Manager of Cannondale Sports Group, Schwinn’s parent company. “Through our new cooperation with Toshiba Corporation, the Tailwind is powered by the world’s most innovative and fastest charging battery, a battery that can be recharged in 30 minutes through a standard electrical outlet (or as little as five minutes through a commercial charger) versus the industry standard of four hours or more. That’s one-eighth the time or better of competing eBikes.” “We know that more and more people are riding bikes for a variety of reasons, including economic factors, health benefits and environmental concerns. Industry reports forecast a dramatic rise in electric bicycle sales here in the U.S. and around the world, and we expect a significant interest in the Tailwind eBike when it arrives in Independent Bicycle Retailers (IBDs) in early 2009,” said Maier. Details on the Schwinn Tailwind eBike The Tailwind (like all Schwinn electric bicycles) is a so-called eBike hybrid and can be ridden in either motor-assist mode or as a conventional bike. The eight-speed Tailwind utilizes a lightweight, Schwinn-designed 6000 series aluminum alloy frame and an SR Suntour NEX-4610 suspension fork with lock-out. The electric motor in the Tailwind is housed in the hub of the front wheel, an innovation found in all Schwinn electric bike models. In addition, all Schwinn eBike models (including the Tailwind) utilize the Plug N’ Drive removable battery pack which is built into stylishly designed rear bike rack systems, allowing riders to quickly detach the battery for recharging. It is projected that Tailwind owners will realize an industry leading 2,000 recharge lifecycles with the eBike versus the industry standard of 1,000 charges before needing to replace the battery. Tailwind riders will find they can ride 25 to 30 miles per charge (depending upon such factors as climate, rider weight and terrain). The Tailwind also comes with a 20,000-mile or two-year limited warranty. Other specs for Schwinn’s Tailwind include:
A Shimano Nexus 8-speed internal geared rear hub, A brushless motor with 180 watts of continuous power or 250 watts at peak power, Schwinn’s PowerDial on and off power assist system, with three pedal assist power settings, Rear roller braking system,
Double wall alloy rims and Continental Town Ride tires (with flat protection and reflective sidewall), Inside-the-frame electric wire routing, Full fenders, chain cover,
Basta Defender wheel lock, and B+M dynamo powered light set, Selle Royal Look In gel saddle (seat), with suspension seat post and adjustable rise stem, Four standard frame sizes (S, M, L, XL), and Three step-thru frame sizes (S, M, L). EN-Genius Says…At first glance, Schwinn’s $3200 Tailwind seems to be simply another entry into a high-end electric bicycle market that’s already crowded with competitors jostling for eco-trendies’ discretionary dollars. A closer look however reveals that it also signals the entry of Toshiba’s Super Charge ion Battery (SCiB) technology into widespread commercial markets where it will go head-to-head with other advanced chemistries such as A123 Systems’ nanophosphate technology. Toshiba’s commercial roll-out of the improved battery technology they announced in December 2007 makes it one of the few commercially-available alternatives to powerful but trouble-prone standard Lithium Ion (Li-Ion) or nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) chemistries. If SCiB can achieve something close to price parity with A123 products, its 3000+ charge cycle lifetime and extremely fast charging capabilities could give Toshiba a significant advantage in the cars, off-road, and industrial vehicles that they see as their primary market.Featuring lithium titanate anode materials, improved electrolyte chemistry and construction features that help it resist thermal runaway, a SCiB battery pack will be available as an option on Schwinn’s Tailwind, its top-line electric bike where it will help prove the technology and give it a start on its ride down the cost/volume curve. Although the SCiB pack adds a hefty $1000 to the $2200 you’d pay for a Tailwind sporting a standard NiMH pack, its longer life and ability to quickly soak up a charge should make it very attractive to people intending to use the e-bike as a regular alternative to a car and to bicycle rental operators.The Tailwind 24 V, 4.2 A-hr SCiB battery pack gives its rider the same 25 - 30 miles of electrically-assisted pedaling as its NiMH counterpart but it is guaranteed to deliver at least 2000 recharge cycles before having to replace the battery – around 2x the number of charges a conventional battery can. The 2000-charge estimate may, in fact, be a quite conservative since Toshiba lab tests show that the batteries will most likely survive 3000 or more charge/discharge cycles with only a 10% loss in their capacity and may deliver useful service for up to 6000 cycles. In addition, riders will be able to charge their battery in 30 minutes versus the 2 - 8 hours a standard Li-Ion or NiMH battery takes to charge. An optional high-speed charger that delivers up to 50 A can bring the battery up to 90% of its capacity in only 5 minutes. While the quick-charge option may prove popular with impatient consumers, its real market is anticipated to be bicycle rental businesses.In addition to its impressive battery, the Tailwind has a number of features that are part of an important design trend, intended to help eBikes appeal to the average consumer as well as the hard-core bicycle enthusiast. Many of the features are intended to provide the rider with a hassle-free experience that makes riding fun. The Tailwind’s comfortable upright cruiser-style riding position and its enclosed chain system make riding in street clothes or even business attire practical and worry-free. One of my favorite things on the bike is its eight-speed Shimano internal-geared hub, a more sophisticated version of the rugged Sturmey-Archer three-speed planetary transmissions that were so popular on English Racer-style bikes before the 10-speed derailleur shoved them off to the side. The internally-geared planetary gears are fully enclosed and usually require only minor adjustments and lubrication on a yearly basis to keep them shifting smoothly and effortlessly. Both casual and hard-core riders will appreciate the three-stage selectable boost level control that allows you to decide how much electrical assistance you get from the motor system.Producing batteries for electric bikes like the Tailwind will give Toshiba to a chance to overcome the higher costs associated with the battery’s slightly more complex construction and prepare for high-volume production. This is in keeping with Toshiba’s plan to begin pilot production of 150,000 batteries a month at their factory located in Saku, Nagano Prefecture. Toshiba has announced its intention to enter mass production by 2010 with plans to make 600,000 cells for hybrid and electric vehicles and 400,000 batteries for forklifts and other industrial equipment.The Tailwind electric bike represents the next generation of eBike and will be available in early 2009 at a suggested retail price of $3199.99.

[Bookeun's comments]

1. Cost issue: SCiB seems about $1000 expensive compared to existing its competitor NiMH, but the cell price does usually depend on the production volume. Thus, the possible price drop can be expected soon. However, NiMH is a fully mature technology and it does not make sense to expect 'expansion or new construction of its production line' due to its future sales projection, either steady or gradual decrease.

2. This e-bike can go 20-30miles using only two laptop packs (based on 2P3S) sized battery pack. This tells there are still lots of things can be improved or added in terms of its functionality such as energy generation during pedaling to charge the battery like PHEV.